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I appeared on Silvio Canto Jr's talk show from Dallas last night.  It's here.

MARCH 19,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

MACHINES OVER MAN – FROM REUTERS:  Most buyers prefer to be left alone as they shop in store for items like apparel and prefer to use in-store technology for customer service over personalized attention from store employees, according to a new study.  The findings are based on a shopper survey conducted by HRC Retail Advisory and highlights the challenges retail chains increasingly face as they try to find the right balance between staffing and technology in stores.  For example, about 85 percent of those surveyed want to be able to check prices at price scanners instead of having to ask a store employee for pricing information. Seventy six percent of overall respondents rated an in-store app that will provide personal recommendations as important.  I think this was inevitable.  The technology is faster and never discourteous.  More jobs will disappear.  I'd imagine robots will be escorting us through stores in the next decade.

THIS WAS BOUND TO HAPPEN – FROM BLOOMBERG:  Uber Technologies Inc. halted autonomous vehicle tests after one of its cars struck and killed a woman in Tempe, Arizona, in what is likely the first pedestrian fatality involving the technology.  The 49-year-old woman, Elaine Herzberg, was crossing the road outside of a crosswalk when the Uber vehicle operating in autonomous mode under the supervision of a human safety driver struck her, according to the Tempe Police Department.  After the incident, which happened at 10 p.m. local time on Sunday, she was transferred to a nearby hospital, where she died from her injuries. "Uber is assisting and this is still an active investigation," Liliana Duran, a Tempe police spokeswoman, said in an emailed statement.  There are going to be these tragedies, but most experts on robotics believe that roads will be dramatically safer once the human element is taken out of driving.  The self-driving car wasn't out drinking last night.

GREAT MOMENTS IN POLITICS – FROM FOX:   Former "Sex and the City" star Cynthia Nixon said on Twitter Monday that she'll challenge Gov. Andrew Cuomo in New York's Democratic primary in September.  Her announcement sets up a race pitting an openly gay liberal activist against a two-term incumbent with a $30 million war chest and possible presidential ambitions.  In a video on Twitter, the public education advocate said, "We want our government to work again."  Nixon in recent speeches has called on Democrats nationally to carve out a strong liberal identity instead of being merely the "anti-Trump party."  Look, she may give Andy Cuomo a run for his money.  And, of course, the Republican Party in New York is nowhere to be seen.  They concede elections before they're held.

March 19, 2018       Permalink 

GETTING OUR WAY?– AT 12:18 P.M. ET:  Like him or not, President Trump has real international impact.  Witness how, though the intelligent use of implied force, he has brought North Korea to the negotiating table.

Now he is making it clear that he will carry out his pledge to get out of the Iran nuclear deal unless the agreement is modified to his liking.  And European nations are, if only grudgingly, starting to take action in the president's direction, but probably not strong enough action.  From Reuters: 

BRUSSELS/PARIS (Reuters) - Britain, France and Germany have proposed fresh EU sanctions on Iran over its ballistic missiles and its role in Syria’s war, according to a confidential document, in a bid to persuade Washington to preserve the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran.

The joint paper, seen by Reuters, was sent to European Union capitals on Friday, said two people familiar with the matter, to sound out support for such sanctions as they would need the support of all 28 EU member governments.

The proposal is part of a EU strategy to save the accord signed by world powers that curbs Tehran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons, namely by showing U.S. President Donald Trump that there are other ways to counter Iranian power abroad.

Trump delivered an ultimatum to the European signatories on Jan. 12 that they must agree to “fix the terrible flaws of the Iran nuclear deal” - which was sealed under his predecessor Barack Obama - or he would refuse to extend U.S. sanctions relief on Iran. U.S. sanctions will resume unless Trump issues fresh “waivers” to suspend them on May 12.

“We will therefore be circulating in the coming days a list of persons and entities that we believe should be targeted in view of their publicly demonstrated roles,” the document said, referring to Iranian ballistic missile tests and Tehran’s role backing Syria’s government in the seven-year-old civil war.

Analysts say the nuclear agreement, touted at the time as a breakthrough reducing the risk of a devastating wider war in the Middle East, could collapse if Washington pulls out.

The document said Britain, France and Germany were engaged in “intensive talks with the Trump administration to “achieve a clear and lasting reaffirmation of U.S. support for the (nuclear) agreement beyond May 12”.

COMMENT:  The problem, of course, is that Europe's attitude toward Iran is heavily influenced by European business interests seeking profit in that country.  I really wonder if the kind of sanctions envisioned by the Europeans will be enough to satisfy Trump.  I wonder if the sanctions will even be applied. 

In May, Trump must either newly certify the Iran agreement, or begin moving America out of it.

March 19, 2018       Permalink

A COOL SAUDI? – AT 11:21 A.M.  ET:  That almost sounds like a contradiction in terms.  And yet,  the new strongman in Saudi Arabia appears to be a genuine reformer.  This can only be good for us, and for peace between the Arabs and Israelis.  From Fox: 

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is a man on a mission.

Known to many simply by his initials, MBS, the 32-year-old was given expansive new powers by his father just nine months ago and arrives Tuesday in Washington, D.C. for a summit with President Trump in the midst of a major push to modernize his conservative Islamic Kingdom.

Bin Salman has already instituted a series of surprising reforms to make the Muslim country -- known for its bearded religious police enforcing strict social codes -- more open and accepting of Western norms.

Last fall, the Kingdom agreed for the first time to allow women to drive. After 35 years, movie theaters will open again (they were shut in the 1980s during a wave of ultra-conservatism). In a break with the rigid guardianship that’s defined the kingdom for decades, it was recently announced that women can launch their own businesses without consent from a husband or male relative. And a prohibition on women attending sporting events in national stadiums was lifted.

During an interview on CBS’s “60 Minutes,” the crown prince, who has curtailed the ability of religious police to arrest women for dress code violations, said women are equal to men: “We are all human beings and there is no difference.”

Although Saudi women have been dictated by custom and the religious police to wear the abaya, a full-length black cloak that covers everything except their hands and face in public, bin Salman pushed back against that idea during the interview.

“The laws are very clear and stipulated in the laws of Sharia: that women wear decent, respectful clothing, like men,” said bin Salman. “This, however, does not particularly specify a black abaya or a black head cover. The decision is entirely left for women to decide what type of decent and respectful attire she chooses to wear.”

Bin Salman went on to explain that “extremists” forbidding the mixing of men and women are pushing ideas that “contradict the way of life during the time of the prophet and the Caliphs.”

COMMENT:  That is a remarkable breath of fresh air.  Who woulda thunk it?  And yet we must be careful.  Reform in Saudi Arabia is on MBS's shoulders.  I have no doubt he has enemies, and powerful enemies.  Will he be allowed to govern, and bring needed change?

It's widely reported that Saudi Arabia and Israel now have a good off-the-record relationship.  Saudi recently gave permission for Air India to overfly Saudi airspace on flights to Israel, something that would have been unheard of only a year ago.

Saudi Arabia is the keeper of the holiest place in Islam, Mecca.  If the country can produce reform, and make it stick, there could be a dramatic effect on the Islamic world.  But "if" is that very big word.   

March 19, 2018       Permalink

THE PRESIDENT HOLDS – AT 10:34 A.M. ET:  It was a week of turmoil for the president, but his poll numbers are holding up remarkably well, especially as compared with the wobbly ranking of his party.  From Rasmussen: 

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty-two percent (52%) disapprove.
The latest figures include 31% who Strongly Approve of the way Trump is performing and 43% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -12.

COMMENT:  Rasmussen does show Trump somewhat stronger than other polls do, but remember that Rasmussen polls likely voters, the most accurate gauge, while most other polls survey registered voters.  Many registered voters don't actually vote.

We must ask this question:  What happens if the president turns out to be more popular than his party?  Remember that he has no real history in the Republican Party.  In effect, he may become his own party.  That may please his considerable ego, but could be highly dangerous if he's ever impeached by the House.  Support for him in the Senate, which would conduct an impeachment trial, could erode dramatically if Republicans no longer see him as "one of us." 

One of the most intriguing questions of the year is whether Trump will go all out for his party in midterm campaigning, or, if the polling shows a Democratic wave, withdraw from the fray and distance himself from the losing side.  The man is a shrewd politician, to be watched carefully.

March 19,  2018     Permalink

MARCH 18,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

SORDID – FROM FOX:  The two firms responsible for building Florida International University’s "instant bridge," which suddenly collapsed Thursday and left six people dead, are coming under increased scrutiny as details emerge of past engineering failures and inspection fines -- including a recent accusation that one hired “unskilled” and “careless” workers.  The $14.2-million pedestrian bridge was supposed to open next year to help students cross a busy road adjacent to the campus. It was an accelerated, joint construction effort by two Florida companies: MCM Construction, a Miami-based contractor, and Figg Bridge Design, based in Tallahassee, who both have worked on dozens of projects nationwide, ranging from military facilities to schools.  A full investigation is required.  Who hired these firms?  On what basis?  This didn't look like a very complicated project.

SANITY TRIUMPHS, THIS TIME – FROM IJR.COM:   The New York Police Department (NYPD) reversed its decision to remove armed officers from three schools after it received backlash from parents and the community.  In the wake of the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shooting, the NYPD pulled the remainder of its armed school officers as part of Mayor Bill De Blasio's new community policing units.  While unarmed school safety agents would remain at schools, the move was received with backlash from the community.  Francis Lewis High School Parent Teacher Association co-president Linda Lovett told the New York Post:  “It’s ridiculous. All over the country they are telling you ‘arm the teachers, get an officer in your school.’ New York City had a designated officer and they are actually cutting the program ... they are making us less secure."  Rarely do we see a story reporting a sane decision in New York City.  This is a solemn moment.

NO HEAVYWEIGHTS NEED APPLY – FROM THE POLITICO:   The hiring stage of the 2020 shadow primary is underway.  At least a dozen possible Democratic presidential candidates have begun bolstering their teams by adding aides with campaign experience to their Senate staffs, personal offices or 2018 reelection payrolls.  The hires are never explicitly advertised or designed to be about 2020. But the behind-the-scenes shuffle is a long-overdue stage in the traditional precampaign scramble. Potential candidates who have run before — like Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden — largely have their core teams in place.  Yet in many other cases, chiefs of staff and senior strategists are now actively looking for new talent after receiving clear instructions from their bosses: I don’t know whether I’m going to run for president, but do everything you need to do to get me in position, just in case.  There isn't a star in the lot.  The Democratic field has many names, but no depth. 

March 18, 2018       Permalink

THIS IS GOOD – AT 2:11 P.M. ET:  Republicans, actually being imaginative, are looking to enhance tax cuts.  From The Hill:

Republicans are increasingly talking about “phase two” of tax cuts — including a permanent extension of the new law’s individual tax cuts — in an effort to highlight their signature legislative accomplishment and force Democrats to take tough votes. 

While Republicans could struggle to pass another tax bill this year, conservatives said that an effort to cement the new individual rates would be both smart policy and smart politics. 

“I am 100 percent behind that and would support it and even help promote it,” said Rep. Mark Walker, (R-N.C.), chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee. 

President Trump and some key lawmakers have made comments in recent weeks about pursuing additional tax cuts following the enactment of the GOP’s tax-overhaul bill last year.

“We’re actually going for a phase two, which will help in addition to the middle class, will help companies, and it’s going to be something I think very special,” Trump said at an event in Missouri on Wednesday. 

The same day, House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady (R-Texas) said he plans to release new proposals “this year.” 

“We are exploring what good new ideas can be brought forward in tax reform,” he said on Fox Business Network’s “Varney & Co.” 

COMMENT:  William F. Buckley Jr. used to say that tax cuts are always good.  I agree.  If they're done responsibly, tax cuts are always good.  The Dems, though, don't agree.  They think the money belongs to them.

March 18, 2018       Permalink

AND IN BRITAIN, THE DISGRACE OF LABOUR – AT 12:37 P.M. ET:   Britain has seen trauma in recent days, with the attempt by Moscow to assassinate two individuals in Britain.  London responded by clearly naming Moscow as the instigator, and by expelling Russian diplomats. 

But one British politician refused to go along – Jeremy Corbin, the far-left leader of the Labour Party, and a man who would like very much to be prime minister.  Corbin has a sordid past, although he comes across in public as just another socialist.  He is not.  He makes Lenin look like Ronald Reagan.

Corbin's behavior has caused an uproar, and may lead to his entirely deserved political demise.  From Daily Mail: 

The Labour leadership was scrambling today to limit the damage from Jeremy Corbyn's refusal to condemn Russia.

Senior frontbenchers took to the airwaves to insist they 'agree with the Prime Minister' amid fears that Mr Corbyn has appeared to be an apologist for Vladimir Putin.

The veteran left-winger was heavily criticised by MPs from all parties last week after he pointedly failed to accept that Moscow was behind the attempted murder of former spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in Salisbury.

Mr Corbyn's spokesman inflamed the row further by arguing that the British security services might not be trustworthy enough to draw a conclusion on the involvement of Russia.  

But in an apparent attempt to shift the party's position, Mr Corbyn's cose allies John McDonnell and Baroness Chakrabarti stressed that Russia is culpable and endorsed the government's reprisals against Moscow.  

Mr McDonnell said the Salisbury incident is 'highly likely' to have been a state execution.

Appearing on ITV's Peston on Sunday, Mr McDonnell said: 'We support exactly what the Prime Minister said and we condemn Russia for this, condemn them. I believe this is a pattern of behaviour we have seen.'

The shadow chancellor said it was important to base judgements on the evidence but added: 'There's a pattern of people being murdered here, therefore it leads you to the conclusion that Putin has questions to answer because this is highly likely this could have been a state execution.'

COMMENT:  It is chilling to think that Corbyn the red might become prime minister, but I'm hopeful that the good sense of most of Britain's voters will prevent that.  I trust it's not a vain hope.

March 18, 2018       Permalink

WAKE UP, EUROPE – AT 11:51 A.M. ET:  There are more and more stories out of Europe showing that at least some Europeans, and even some leaders, are starting to be alarmed at the enemies they face.  Maybe they're starting to listen to President Trump.  From Reuters: 

BERLIN (Reuters) - North Korean rockets can now be fitted with nuclear weapons and could reach Germany and central Europe, a top official with Germany’s foreign intelligence agency told lawmakers this week, according to a report in the Bild am Sonntag newspaper.

BND Deputy Director Ole Diehl told lawmakers during a closed-door meeting that the assessment was “certain,” the newspaper reported, citing participants in the briefing.

At the same time, Diehl said the agency viewed talks between North and South Korea as a positive sign.

No comment was immediately available from the BND.

A senior North Korean diplomat left for Finland on Sunday for talks with former U.S. and South Korean officials, Yonhap News Agency reported, amid a series of diplomatic encounters ahead of a possible U.S.-North Korean summit.

North Korea is pursuing its nuclear and missile programmes in defiance of U.N. Security Council sanctions and has made no secret of its plans to develop a missile capable of hitting the U.S. mainland.

It defends the programmes as a necessary deterrent against perceived plans for invasion by the United States, which stations 28,500 troops in South Korea, a legacy of the Korean war. The United States denies such plans.

COMMENT:  There have been some encouraging comments by German officials this week, finally waking up to the fact that the refugee stream from the Mideast constitutes a clear and present danger to European culture.  That doesn't mean, of course, that European culture is all that perfect.  Germany has a history.  But European civilization is still one of the great centers of Western ideas, although bypassed by the United States.  Europe has a right to defend its democratic traditions, although you'd never know it listening to some European "intellectuals" and so-called journalists.

March 18,  2018     Permalink